Will Drake Replace Kendrick Lamar at No. 1 on the Billboard 200?

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated Mar. 1, we look at the chances of Drake’s and PartyNextDoor’s new full-length teamup to knock the former’s recent rap opponent out of the chart’s top spot.  

PartyNextDoor & Drake, $ome $exy $ongs 4 U (OVO/Santa Anna/Republic): Drake hasn’t been able to find a lot of wins since taking the consensus loss in his culture-conquering 2024 beef with Kendrick Lamar – the after-effects of which continue to permeate the culture on a weekly basis nearly a year later, with Lamar’s signature diss track “Not Like Us” recently winning five Grammys and serving as the centerpiece moment for the most-watched Super Bowl halftime show in history. But Drake may be due for a pretty big W shortly, following the release of his first full-length album since 2023’s For All the Dogs – the Valentine’s Day-released, R&B-focused $ome $exy $ongs 4 U, a teamup with longtime OVO labelmate and collaborator PartyNextDoor.  

The 21-track effort from the two Toronto natives unsurprisingly blanketed the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA and Apple Music real-time charts upon its release, even breaking the record for the biggest R&B/soul album in Apple Music’s history by first-day streams worldwide, and remains a major presence on both listings near the end of the tracking week. While many of the tracks have receded in daily streams since the set dropped, a couple have continued to grow, including the poppier mid-album cuts “Die Trying” and “Nokia,” the latter of which has also spent the majority of the week atop the iTunes real-time chart. The set is also being sold on CD via the album’s own website, with three variants of the CD case available for purchase. 

Though the album might not match the first-week numbers of some past chart-conquering Drake projects – including the 404,000 first-week units posted by 2023’s Her Loss, his most recent full-length collaboration, alongside star rapper 21 Savage – it seems likely to return The Boy to No. 1, tying him with Jay-Z for the most Billboard 200 No. 1 albums of any rapper (with 14) and at least temporarily silence critics who declared him “done” following the feud. And of course, with Lamar’s GNX currently occupying the chart’s top spot, it could give him a much-needed triumph in the headlines over his perpetually victory-lapping foe.  

Kendrick Lamar, GNX (pgLang/Interscope/ICLG): Even if Drake takes the Billboard 200’s top spot next week, don’t expect Kendrick Lamar to disappear from the chart in the weeks after his Super Bowl performance. In fact, in his first full tracking week following that globally buzzed-about Feb. 9 show, Lamar’s streaming numbers should be even more robust, with performed hits from his 2024 blockbuster GNX like “Squabble Up,” “TV Off” and the SZA-featuring “Luther” continuing to be consumed en masse, and the latter even threatening Lamar’s own “Not Like Us” to take over the No. 1 spot on the Billboard Hot 100 next week. 

Could it potentially stave off $ome $exy $ongs in that set’s debut week, giving K-Dot one more KO in this now-largely one-sided battle? It doesn’t seem too likely, given the natural disadvantages the 12-track GNX faces in terms of total streams when compared to the 21-track $$$4U – and the fact that the set should slide in terms of sales next week, after the set’s physical release on cassette, vinyl and CD format two Fridays ago (Feb. 7) helped it sell over 100,000 copies for the tracking week ending Feb. 13. Still, with so many of its tracks reconfirmed as streaming monsters, the album is likely to hang around the chart’s upper tier in the weeks to come — meaning we could very easily see GNX return to No. 1 for a third time in a future slow-release week.  

Sabrina Carpenter, Short n’ Sweet (Island): Speaking of 2024 blockbusters – another one that’s spent multiple weeks atop the Billboard 200 and hung around the top 10 for many months since should be due for some big gains next week. On Friday (Feb. 14), pop superstar Sabrina Carpenter released the deluxe edition of her four-week No. 1 Short n’ Sweet, expanding the 12-track set to 17 — with four entirely new songs, and a redo of the set’s Hot 100-topping “Please Please Please,” featuring guest vocals from country icon Dolly Parton.  

The combination of the original set’s sustained streaming performance – it’s held in the lower half of the top 10 on the Billboard 200 for the whole of February – and the boost it should get from the new deluxe edition should make it one of the top contenders on the chart next week. The bonus cuts have all seen solid streaming bows, with “Busy Woman” in particular appearing to be something of a breakout hit, and the deluxe version of the album should also do well in physical sales, with the set available on her webstore in both azure- and pearl-colored vinyl, and on lipstick-marked CD.  

IN THE MIX 

The Lumineers, Automatic (Dualtone): The arena-folk stars’ first new album since 2022’s Brightside doesn’t quite include the radio hits of previous sets, but does arrive during a time where a new wave of stomp-clappers led by Noah Kahan have reintroduced their signature sound to the mainstream – and is available for purchase in eight vinyl variants, including a signed edition. Each of The Lumineers’ four previous albums reached the Billboard 200’s top 10, though with streaming unlikely to offer a ton of help, the set will need to sell quite well to extend that streak to five.